基于多元线性回归方法的砌体结构加固费用估算模型研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郑山锁  丁明松  郑捷  侯丕吉 《地震工程学报》2018,40(1):6-13

为建立适用于砌体结构的加固费用快速估算模型,对中国陕西、山西、四川等地砌体结构建筑物的历史加固费用及相关建筑参数进行统计,建立涵盖35栋砌体结构建筑物加固费用估算模型的回归与验证数据库,同时对影响加固费用的各建筑参数作显著性分析,并基于后向消去的多元线性回归方法,利用SPSS统计分析软件对已采集的加固数据进行回归,得到4个费用估算模型;按照相应评价准则分别对各模型进行评价,提出一套最优的砌体结构加固费用快速估算模型,并对该回归模型进行验证分析。回归得到的费用估算模型满足精度要求,具有一定的工程应用价值。  相似文献   

基于改进的BP神经网络构建区域精密对流层延迟模型   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

肖恭伟  欧吉坤  刘国林  张红星 《地球物理学报》2018,61(8):3139-3148

利用神经网络算法挖掘海量数据的规律已成为科技发展的一种趋势，本文针对卫星信号的天顶对流层延迟进行建模.对流层延迟是影响卫星定位精度的重要因素之一，建立精密区域对流层模型对高精度定位有着重要的意义.对区域测站对流层延迟数据的分析，考虑到实时建模中传统BP（Back Propagation）神经网络计算量大，易出现"过拟合"现象、不稳定等因素，通过改进的BP神经网络建立了区域精密对流层模型.详细介绍了新模型的建立过程，并与常用的对流层区域实时模型进行了对比.还讨论了建模测站数目对预报精度的影响.相比现有的其他对流层延迟模型，基于改进的BP神经网络构建的区域精密对流层延迟模型无论在拟合和预报方面都有较好的精度，且随着测站数目的增加模型精度趋于平稳.改进的模型参数较少，可以进行实时的区域精密对流层延迟改正；需要播发的信息量小，适用于连续运行参考站系统（Continuously Operating Reference Stations，CORS）的应用.研究表明：改进的BP神经网络模型能够更好的充分利用大规模历史数据描述卫星信号对流层延迟的空间分布情况，适用于实时大区域精密对流层建模.基于日本地区2005年近1000多个测站的NCAR（National Center Atmospheric Research）对流层数据进行区域对流层延迟建模，结果表明改进的BP神经网络模型在拟合和预报精度上都有较大提升，RMSE（Root Mean Square Error）分别为：7.83 mm和8.52 mm，而四参数模型拟合、预报RMSE分别18.03 mm和16.60 mm.  相似文献   

一种卫星重力梯度数据的ARMA最优滤波模型构建方法          下载免费PDF全文

朱广彬  常晓涛  付兴科  瞿庆亮 《地球物理学报》2018,61(12):4729-4736

由于卫星重力梯度观测的有色噪声特性和海量观测特征，在利用直接法进行重力场模型的最小二乘求解时，观测值的协方差阵为超大型的非对角阵，这给数值求解带来了极大困难.本文提出了一种基于先验误差功率谱密度的最优ARMA滤波模型构建方法，结合法方程的分块求解策略，可实现对卫星重力梯度观测值的高效滤波处理.数值仿真结果表明，利用最优ARMA滤波器进行时域滤波后，法方程的态性得到了明显改善，重力梯度观测值中的有色噪声得到了有效的"白化"处理，大地水准面精度得到了显著提升.  相似文献   

A new method for establishing hydrologic fidelity of snow depth measurements based on snowmelt–runoff hydrographs     

Daeryong Park 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(3):369-385

For snowmelt-driven flood studies, snow water equivalent (SWE) is frequently estimated using snow depth data. Accurate measurements of snow depth are important in providing data for continuous hydrologic simulations of such watersheds. A new hydrologic fidelity metric is proposed in this study to evaluate the potential contribution of particular snow depth datasets to flow characteristics using observed data and hydrologic modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Data-based hydrologic fidelity of snow depth measurements is defined as a categorical skill score between the snow depth in the watershed and the hydrograph peak or volume at the watershed outlet. Similarly, model-based hydrologic fidelity is defined as a categorical skill score between the model-simulated snow depth and the model-simulated hydrograph peak or volume. The proposed framework is illustrated using the Pecatonica River watershed in the USA, indicating which sites have a higher hydrologic fidelity, which is preferred in hydrologic studies.  相似文献   

A multiscaling‐based intensity–duration–frequency model for extreme precipitation          下载免费PDF全文

Hans Van de Vyver 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1635-1647

Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.  相似文献   

Model for multiblock columns subjected to base excitation     

Tamás Ther  László P. Kollár 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(2):418-437

A new model is presented for multiblock columns subjected to earthquakes, which contains an impact and an opening model. Both in the impact and in the opening model, all the possible opening configurations are investigated because it was found that in many practical cases, unexpected patterns may occur. The model is purely mechanical: assuming rigid blocks and classical (inelastic) impact. The effect of energy dissipation during impact was investigated. Using our model in accordance with the literature, it was found that monolithic blocks are more vulnerable to overturning than multiblock systems.  相似文献   

Bacteria‐sediment associations in an alpine,freshwater environment and their effects on particle size,density and settling velocity          下载免费PDF全文

David C. Barrett  Kyle R. Hodder 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(10):2232-2242

This study measures the presence of bacteria‐sediment associations (BSAs) in an alpine, glacier‐fed watershed in the Southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. The impact of BSAs on the creation of flocculated particles and their settling velocity are quantified using a laser transmissometer. Results from the study indicate that BSAs are present in the watershed and vary over both space and time. The percentage of bacteria associated with sediment particles was found to range from < 1% to 40%. Major sources of planktonic bacteria such as agricultural land and wastewater treatment outflow co‐occur with large decreases in the BSA ratio. Laboratory analysis demonstrates that an increase in the concentration of bacteria was associated with a decrease in the volume concentration of small particles, and a decrease in both estimated density and measured settling velocity for particles in larger size classes; consistent with flocculated particles of increasing complexity arising from combinations of primary particles and/or BSAs. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions using laminated lake sediments in alpine, glacier‐fed systems benefit from a fuller understanding of the geomorphologic processes by which they formed. While bacteria are noted to enhance formation of flocculated particles in laboratory systems, their impact upon geomorphic processes in natural systems have yet to be fully explored. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatio‐temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end‐member — How does it affect hydrograph separation results?          下载免费PDF全文

Jan Schmieder  Jakob Garvelmann  Thomas Marke  Ulrich Strasser 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1828-1843

Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km², glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.  相似文献   

筒型桩靴在饱和砂土中的贯入阻力研究          下载免费PDF全文

吴曲楠  刘润  张海洋  王宇飞 《地震工程学报》2018,40(6):1183-1190

桩靴贯入阻力的准确预测是自升式钻井平台安全作业的前提。通过小比尺模型试验,研究饱和砂土中桩靴贯入速度对筒型桩靴插桩性能的影响,并基于地基承载力理论提出筒型桩靴贯入阻力的计算方法,进而采用CEL有限元方法模拟筒型桩靴的贯入过程,并与试验结果进行比较。研究发现:当模型试验中桩靴贯入速度在0.1～0.3mm/s时,桩靴的贯入可看作是准静态过程,此时贯入阻力变化不大,采用基于地基承载力理论中的Hansen公式和Vesic公式可较为准确地计算出对应某一深度的贯入阻力;CEL有限元方法可有效模拟筒型桩靴的贯入过程,当桩靴的贯入速度为0.1～0.3mm/s时,数值模拟结果与试验结果吻合较好。  相似文献   

基于ARIO模型的震后重建施工现场安全管理方法          下载免费PDF全文

顾连胜 《地震工程学报》2018,40(6):1350-1355

为提高受灾地区重建安全性，提出基于ARIO模型的震后重建施工现场安全管理方法。在将建筑设计影响因素划分为直接因素与间接因素的基础上，将ARIO模型引入震后重建施工现场安全管理中，利用其分析施工过程中各产业技术与该地区经济的联系，在考虑经济因素的基础上实现震后施工现场安全管理。设计并构建施工初期数据采集系统、施工前安全管理系统、施工过程中安全管理系统，将ARIO与VR结合，使各系统运行时施工人员能够在虚拟漫游中以第一视角完成虚拟施工，掌握整个工期、流程、所用设备等有关信息，并由辅助专家作出相应指导，实现震后重建施工现场安全系统化管理。提出施工安全辅助建议，以完善灾后重建安全管理方法。实验结果表明，该方法运行后安全系数大于当前方法，其科学性和鲁棒性较强。  相似文献